WHAT DOES EUROPE WANT?

Europe is my theme this time, not Europe as in “the European Union,” but Europe as in “When Europe colonized the world,” i.e. a Europe inclusive of the U.K. 

Katya Adler, BBC’s Europe editor, writes: “Post-Brexit UK is seen by the EU as a close ally that shares the same values in a world threatened by an ambitious China, an expansionist Russia and [the] unpredictable, bullish [and freshly inaugurated] US president.” Adler adds that the new Europe “recognises the need to spend more on defence, as Trump demands, is far warier of China, as he expects, and is more right-leaning in its politics, as he prefers.” However, asks Adler, “Is it a Europe whose leaders also stand up to Trump, despite threats and bluster, if they feel he crosses a line - be it over human rights, free speech or dallying with dictators?” It’s a fair question. 

The world will be curious about the results of Trump’s opening intervention, verbally, in the Russia-Ukraine War. He has said that Putin “should make a deal” and that the Russian president would be “destroying” his own country by “not negotiating with Ukraine.” We are told that there may be a Trump-Putin conversation within days. 

Absent a deal, on February 24 – just over a month from now -- the Russia-Ukraine War will enter its fourth year. Because of the war, a good percentage of Ukraine’s women and children now live outside their country, which is Europe’s second largest in area (Turkey being the largest). Ukraine is bigger, that is, than France, Germany, Spain, Sweden or the U.K. Showing resolve and skill, Ukraine’s soldiers -- armed, trained, and financed by the U.S. and by Germany, the U.K., France and other European countries -- have given Putin’s divisions a fight their boss hadn’t expected. 

Many of Russia’s soldiers come from “oblasts” (provinces or regions) where the bulk of the population is not ethnically Russian. Now North Korean soldiers too are being fielded by Moscow. To avoid the possibility of conscription, sizable numbers of young Russians have slipped to places like neighboring Georgia. 

The picture is not very different in Ukraine. Citing data from Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s office, the BBC reports that “since 2022, around 100,000 cases have been opened against soldiers who left their units.”

TRUMP’S WISHES 

Stories of corruption in the Ukrainian military abound as well, but Putin’s invasion, and the unceasing destruction that has followed, killed any goodwill for Russia that may have existed among Ukrainians. A majority of Russians and Ukrainians share a common religion, Orthodox Christianity, and Russian has been the first language of a good chunk of Ukrainians, but it will be a long time before Ukrainians of any background think of forgiving Russia. 

Trump seems to entertain two Ukraine-related ideas. He thinks he can secure a “deal” from Putin to end the war. And he wants Europe to free the U.S. from having to pay for Ukraine’s defence. Since there was, it appears, an unwritten understanding in the 1990s between Russia and the NATO powers that Ukraine would function as a neutral buffer state between them, one possible deal could involve the stationing, along any agreed new border, of say French, British and German soldiers who would act as a European rather than a NATO force. 

To Zelensky and most Ukrainians, this would look like a huge concession to aggression. Apart from the Donbas area in the east of Ukraine where, after long, bitter, and costly fighting, the Russians have acquired a small additional area, the recovery of Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, has been a passionate Ukrainian dream ever since. Moreover, the strength of feeling across Europe against the Russian aggression of 2022 will also influence any negotiations that Trump may wish to start. 

EUROPE WAS OFFENDED 

That 2022 attack altered Europe’s thinking in ways Putin hadn’t expected. Norway, Sweden, and Finland, as also Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, multiplied their vigilance in relation to Moscow, and there was a similar reaction in European nations far from Russia. In major countries like Germany, the U.K. and France, governments as well as populations were greatly offended by the attack. 

A different reaction came from one of Ukraine’s neighbours, Hungary, where the far-right leader, Viktor Orban, has been the prime minister continuously from 2010. He had led the country earlier, too, from 1998 to 2002. Those who remember Russia’s 1956 invasion of Hungary may be surprised at Orban’s unwillingness to criticize Putin, but political alignments aren’t shaped by what happened nearly seven decades ago. Two other countries that have recently moved towards the far right, Slovakia and Austria, may also not fully share the anxieties triggered in the rest of Europe by Russia’s invasion. 

What Trump attempts or achieves over the Russia-Ukraine War will be interesting to watch. Meanwhile two questions ought to be asked. One is this: Shouldn’t Europe – its governments and its people – be doing more to find a solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict? After all it was the ill-treatment of Jews in Europe that gave birth to the demand for an Israel to be created in the Middle East. If, as a result, millions of Palestinians are sought to be pushed out of the land where they or their ancestors have lived for centuries, should Europe do nothing to prevent the expulsion? The Gaza ceasefire is a merciful and overdue relief, but it ought to be the start of a global (and European) resolve to create an independent and viable state of Palestine next to but not subservient to an independent and viable Israel. 

SOMETHING CREATIVE? 

The second question is about Europe’s sense of its place in the world. For history-making and gifted countries like France, the U.K., Germany, Spain and Italy (to mention only a few of Europe’s great lands) to remain content with being camp-followers or spectators doesn’t seem right. Like places elsewhere in the world, every European country faces hard challenges, no doubt. While immigrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, and from countries in Europe as well, have enriched life in every European nation, making room for them hasn’t been easy anywhere, not even for earlier immigrants. “No new immigrants!” seems to have become a popular cry, uniting Europe’s far right with MAGA forces across the Atlantic.

Even so, those with even a slight knowledge of Europe’s incredible contribution to humankind’s progress will continue to entertain expectations from that continent. Isn’t there something creative that the intellectual and political leaders of today’s Europe (inclusive of the U.K.) would want to say to the world?  

Let’s be grateful in any case for Pope Francis’s message to President Trump: “Inspired by your nation’s ideals of being a land of opportunity and welcome for all, it is my hope that under your leadership the American people will prosper and always strive to build a more just society, where there is no room for hatred, discrimination or exclusion.”