If Trust is Lost

Earthquakes typically don’t have a season, but right now many across the globe are being jolted day after day. While Myanmar (and places in neighboring Thailand) experienced high-order physical shaking (and heavy casualties) on March 28, in other countries assumptions about how democracies are run have been blasted for a six, as cricket watchers might say. 

As I type these lines, it is still several hours before Trump is to make his big tariff announcement (set for April 1 evening, eastern US time), which could invite turbulent replies from other nations. Also expected on April 1 evening is the result of voting for a judge in the swing state of Wisconsin after a campaign that again saw Musk merrily deploy million-dollar checks. (Yes, in parts of the US judges are elected.) 

Myanmar (or Burma, the old name that some in that hard-hit country still prefer) holds about 55 million people of scores of different ethnicities, a considerable land area, and quantities of jade, teak, oil, and gas. However, Myanmar’s chief wealth (as anyone who has visited would testify) is the warmth of its people. Why such a nation should face a monster earthquake on top of continual and oppressive military rule and unceasing ethnic conflict is a riddle I raise without expecting any answer. I must however add that an even sharper horror was caused by the apparent decision of some of Myanmar’s military rulers to bomb “rebel” targets in the quake-hit zone. 

WHY OUR WORLD WORKS 

Two weeks ago, I wondered in this column whether we had “already moved to a new world order where raw power brazenly trumps values.” Our world, we know, functions because of trust. We trust traffic laws. We take for granted that cars, buses and trucks will stop at a red light, that pedestrians can safely cross when the light for them turns green. We trust our bank and post office. We trust a piece of printed paper called a bill or a note. We trust the alarm on our phone. 

And we trust that there is some sort of solidarity among democratic nations. 

For more than a century, from the time of the League of Nations, the world has assumed an underlying friendship between the US and Europe. The nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America have had sharp historic disputes with nations in Europe. Despite those disputes, millions from Africa, Asia, and Latin America have been migrating to Western Europe, to the US, to Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and to richer parts of Asia. 

This migration was linked, of course, to the universal human urge to better one’s prospects. But it was also connected to trust in the great notions linked to democracy, notions to which the US and Western Europe appeared to be firmly committed. Notions such as freedom of speech, freedom of belief, equal rights, and freedom of movement. 

Trust that the US did not have a state religion or a state ideology, that it assured equal rights irrespective of race or religion or place of origin, played a large part. The Statue of Liberty was as magnetic as the Almighty Dollar in attracting the courageous and the talented of the world. 

In short, trust in American democracy, and in the word of America’s leaders, has been central to the modern world’s story. Where does that trust stand today? The BBC quotes a German professor of journalism, Markus Ziener, as follows: "We don't know where the US is heading, but we know the belief that we can 100 percent rely on American protection when it comes to our security -- that trust has now gone." 

In this BBC story, the German professor’s remark was linked to a recent poll that showed that while 79 percent of Germans saw Vladimir Putin as "very" or "quite" dangerous to European peace and security, 74 percent said the same for Donald Trump. The survey followed a speech in Munich by Vice President J. D. Vance in which Europe had been sharply criticized.

Meanwhile massive protests, reportedly the largest in Greenland's history, broke out across that immense Arctic island, objecting to “America's pressure tactics,” even “as anti-American sentiment... gripped the Danish territory.” 

"Until recently, we could trust the Americans, who were our allies and friends, and with whom we enjoyed working very closely, but that time is over," said Greenland's prime minister, Mute Egede.

There were suggestions that in the Arctic region Russia would explore “different investment opportunities that we can [take] jointly with the US, in certain sectors approved by the Russian government." The quote was from President Putin's special envoy for foreign investment and economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev. 

TRUMP AND PUTIN 

But Trump isn’t all that happy with Putin either. He told NBC that he was angry with Putin for attacking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's credibility and threatened he might impose a 50 percent tariff on countries buying Russian oil. “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault -- which it might not be... I am going to put secondary tariffs... on all oil coming out of Russia,” said Trump. 

During his talk with NBC, Trump again threatened to bomb Iran if it did not agree to a nuclear deal. Trump had earlier sent a letter to the Tehran regime demanding negotiations. "It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before," he said, noting he would also impose secondary tariffs. In his response, Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian was quoted as saying that his country would not enter into direct negotiations with Washington concerning their nuclear programme, but indirect talks were possible. “We don't avoid talks; it's the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far. They must prove that they can build trust.” 

The BBC has also quoted what it calls “one of the leading pro-Kremlin papers,” Moskovsky Komsomolets, as pointing an accusatory finger back at President Trump and charging the US president with not fulfilling his "obligations" to stop Ukraine striking Russian energy infrastructure. 

According to this newspaper, “Moscow is prepared to make a deal with the US president, as 'the leader of the free world', and the undisputed boss of Nato... But right now, the leader is not leading [and] the boss is not bossing.” 

THIRD TERM? 

Also of considerable interest to democracy watchers is Trump’s remark over the weekend that “there are methods” for seeking a third term and the President’s emphasis that he was “not joking.” The US Constitution appears to prohibit such a move. 

We should also recall that Vice President Vance had told Fox News on March 13 that green-card holders or permanent residents did not “have an indefinite right to be in the United States of America.” According to Vance, the issue, at its core, was not “about free speech or national security,” but “rather a fundamental debate about who is allowed to be part of American society.”

On March 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had revoked more than 300 student visas. 

Worth remembering, too, is President Trump’s directive to “eliminate improper, divisive, or anti-American ideology” from Smithsonian’s network of US museums.

We may look finally at remarks made to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria by Alexander Dugin, who is described as Putin’s philosopher. Dugin suggested that the US was no longer the leader of the free world or of any global alliance or network. It was one sovereign country among many, an extremely powerful one no doubt, but it was not committed to any global agenda. Russia, claimed Dugin, was similar, and it was possible that the US and Russia might join hands to oppose globalism and liberalism.